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The Trump Administration has announced that they would suspend a nuclear arms treaty after several years of the United States accusing Russia of violating the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty by deploying and building banned missiles. However, last year, the United States began producing new warheads for submarines as a strategy to discourage conflicts. With the suspension of the treaty, we could see another arms race beginning in our lifetime.
These events remind me of the Cold War, where the U.S and Soviet Union developed their nuclear arsenal and seemed like war was imminent. This situation greatly frightens me since I feel that there will be a major war in my lifetime.
The treaty will expire in 2021, and it seems as though the Trump Administration will try to revive the treaty if other countries with a nuclear arsenal are willing to participate. If not, they may withdraw within six months unless other measures are taken
1. Do you think we will ultimately leave the treaty?
2. Will other countries participate in the treaty? Why or why not?
3. Has history repeated itself?
Trump has paid a visit to the other world leaders in countries such as Russia, China, and North Korea and has aimed in the past to develop a mutually positive and beneficial relationship, at least for the sake of diplomacy. Trump seems to be on good terms with Russia and will definitely negotiate to put another treaty in place. I think Trump's decision to suspend this treaty is a power move, since the other side has not been following the regulations. This shows that the Trump administration will not stand still in the face of unfair treatment and in justice. In other words, even if we do leave the treaty, another one will take its place and it may even be better. I think the rest of the world wants to avoid a major war as much as the people of the United States do. No one wants to engage in mass destruction, which will be the driving motivation for Russia and the other countries to want to cooperate with Trump. Essentially, this action is Trump calling them out for not following the rules which is a key aspect of a good peacekeeper.
ReplyDeleteHistory has definitely repeated itself in a number of ways. Throughout the Cold War, the U.S. fought to keep the peace between a number of countries, themselves included. Our nuclear arsenal continues to grow alongside other countries, which is extremely worrying seeing as if a country were to pull out of the treaty or it expired with no re-investment in the issue, millions of people could be put at risk in the event of military conflicts. Similar to the Cold War, I believe we need to remain peaceful and negotiate with other countries such as Russia.
ReplyDeleteI think the Trump administration will try to renegotiate and revive the treaty before in ends in 2021. It is very possible other countries, especially those without a strong nuclear arsenal of their own, will participate in the treaty to protect themselves and to ensure that they don't fall behind in the event of another arms race. History has not yet repeated itself as the treaty is still in place, and the difference between the Cold War and now is that Trump has a mostly positive relationship with Russia. However, if the friendship does sour I think it is a possibility an arms race can occur considering the importance Trump has put on establishing military presence.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the treaty will be broken. If either side has broken the treaty, the other side needs only to publish evidence that proves so to discredit their counterpart. The whole world is unanimously against other people having nukes. Countries themselves will be slow to join the treaty, but there is an unspoken alliance in the west against new nuclear countries using economic pressure. History is unlikely to repeat itself now that communication has improved. Russians and Americans will be able to meet their respective bogeymen.
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ReplyDeleteI would expect our government to negotiate with other countries and try to maintain the treaty. However, as Brooke mentioned, history has a tendency to repeat itself so I wouldn’t be surprised if another arms race were to escalate soon. I hope that the Trump administration would try to avoid another nuclear arms race by improving communication between the participating countries and renewing the treaty. Ultimately, I think that other countries and the U.S. will stay in the treaty in order to ensure that the world doesn’t descend into chaos.
ReplyDeleteAs one of the most important disarmament agreements between Russia and the US, I doubt that the US will leave the treaty, because as I see it, there is almost no benefit to leaving it, other than as a sign of isolationist belligerence. In response to your second question, the article seems to suggest that other countries would not participate in the treaty because finding a compromise between several countries ("China, India, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea"), including Russia and the US, would be an extremely challenging task, and would most likely take more time than a treaty between two countries. While I understand that the executive branch is generally left unchecked when it comes to foreign affairs, I hope that some system of checks and balances will be able to restore a modicum of national and international peace.
ReplyDeleteAmerica would most likely not leave the treaty as this treaty has been in place for an extended period of time. This is to ensure that both parties would be able to regulate their nuclear arsenal and to maintain peace. However it is also important to realize that nuclear weapons in both countries exceed the amount that should be allowed.
ReplyDeleteI think that the United States will continue to maintain some sort of treaty with Russia. Even if this treaty isn't renewed, there will likely be a new version of it. I would imagine that Trump wants to act similarly towards this treaty as he did to NAFTA. He will probably create a fairly similar treaty with a few of his own twists and glorify it to his base. I think that other countries are likely to participate because if not, it leaves more potential for another arms race. Nobody ever wins in an arms race as it depletes money and resources just so one country can brag to another. I think that there will be another treaty so that the Cold War or a similar arms race doesn't repeat itself.
ReplyDeleteAlthough it may seem frightening that two major superpowers seem to be at odds with each other, I do not think there is much to worry about. There is no way this will end in nuclear war, as the aim for suspending the treaty is to create a new one. Their goal isn't to incite conflict, but to continue maintaining the peace that they are enjoying now.
ReplyDeleteThere have been many signs in the past decade that the post-Cold War bubble has burst and the world's superpowers are once again at eachothers throats. Russia, for instance, has begun to wage cyber-political warfare across Europe and even in the US proper. This cyber tampering has led to a drastic deterioration of relations between Russia and the United States, which is reflected by the suspension of the INF treaty. Of course, the retreat from nuclear production armistice could lead to an all-out arms race, but I have hope that the threat of the 2020 Presidential election will motivate the Trump Administration to double its efforts to renew and expand weapons treaties with Russia. The heat of the Russian hacking controversy has already gave way to a lot of distrust in the Trump Administration, and I would not be surprised if the President goes out of his way to prove he is at odds with Russia.
ReplyDeleteWell, the current presidential administration is a bit unpredictable at times but I believe the administration is sensible enough to realize the importance of the treaty. Especially for a major world power such as the US, leaving the treaty will set a negative precedent for countries all around the globe. This may result in another "Cold War" type of situation. The idea of building more weapons to deter conflict seems more as a motivation for other countries to build more weapons as well. The treaty does expire in 2021, when the US may have a new presidential administration; but, either way, I cannot foresee the abandonment of the treaty for the pursuit of a false sense of "peace."
ReplyDeleteI believe that the Trump administration will attempt to remain in peace and try to form a new treaty with Russia. As stated before, Trump seems to be working things out and maintaining peace with countries such as Russia, North Korea, and China. However, I can see another Cold War as a possible result of things in a new treaty tend to not work out. But even then, just as Andrew stated, a Cold War tends to just deplete money and resources because each countries wants to show off their most powerful weapon.
ReplyDeleteWhile I do not think Trump would necessarily suspend the nuclear arms treaty with Russia being that he should hopefully be sensible enough to prioritize our citizens first, as Justin stated, Trump's administration has taken several unpredictable moves. This is exemplified by the fact that during his term, Trump has withdrawn from a wide range of agreements that were beneficial to our citizens and our future such as NAFTA and the Paris Climate Agreement. Like previous comments, I would not be suprised if history repeats itself and another Cold War ensues. To prevent the waste of money and resources delegated to fighting the Cold War, I think it would be best interest if Trump took a more compromising stance rather than one that always pushes American interests first. After all, what is beneficial in the short run, may not always be beneficial in the long run.
ReplyDeleteIt is possible that Trump will make the US leave the treaty because of his stubborn outtake on foreign negotiations. However, like many of the comments above, I believe that the treaty will not be broken because there are no benefits to leaving, and the Trump administration is willing to go through with the treaty. Nevertheless, this situation brings about the idea surrounding another Cold War-esque arms race. The Cold War brought about a global tension that was not good for the sake of the people in both the US and Russia due to their fear for the situation. Thus, the Cold War, in totality, would not repeat itself, but if the US was to back out of the treaty, the arms race may repeat itself thus bringing back many fears that citizens had post WWII. I think that other countries will participate in the treaty for the same reason that the US should: there are no benefits to backing out. Thus, joining in on this treaty would lead to a protection for all people in the world and a decrease in fear. Ultimately, by the end of this, history has not yet repeated itself and the chances of that happening are very low because many countries will most likely join the treaty thus leading to a decrease in worldwide fear.
ReplyDeleteI think the idea of leaving the treaty is a possibility, but probably wouldn't happen because nobody would really support such a move. I think that it would be foolish and would only harm Trump, and since he has expressed throughout many events that he is very interested in rerunning for the 2020 election, and since he needs the support of the independents to win, leaving the treaty would probably harm his support. As a result, I do not think we will leave the treaty. Re-reviving it, however, may or may not occur.
ReplyDeleteI think that history has somewhat repeated itself as the United States finds themselves in a situation similar to what happened during the Cold War. The rise of new weaponry such as the submarines which eventually led to precautions taken by the Soviet Union ended in the death of innocent lives on the Lusitania. A similar event may occur if countries again build weaponry as a means of "discouraging conflict" and displaying power. I think the US will leave the treaty because currently it seems to have no impact on what missiles or weaponry is being produced in Russia.
ReplyDeleteThis news is certainly concerning to me because if history repeats itself and we another arms race it will be far worse. Almost every major country has the technology to create nuclear weapons. During the last arms race it was essentially just Russia and the U.S because no other countries had the technology. Consequently, an arms race now would be taking place in a world where nuclear weapons are the norm not the outlier. Additionally, weapons technology has certainly advanced which means the weapons that all countries are creating are deadlier than ever.
ReplyDeleteWhile, the current Trump administration can be unpredictable in their decisions, I ultimately think that they will realize the importance of the treaty and end the suspension of it. I do find it concerning if history does end up repeating itself, and there is a repeat of the Cold War and the arms race leading up to the war, especially since other countries now have the technology to join in the race and possible make it more concerning than it ever was before. However, leaving the treaty is a possibility given Trump's past actions and words, but I don't think it is going to happen
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