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Summary
Multiple news outlets have now called the New Hampshire primary for Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). He was followed closely by Pete Buttigieg, with Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) rounding out the top three candidates in the primary. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former Vice President Joe Biden both had disappointing showings, coming in fourth and fifth place, respectively. Sanders also won the New Hampshire primary in 2016, and was expected to win again, although his campaign had faced many doubts throughout 2019. After failing to garner major support in either of the first two primaries, both businessman Andrew Yang and Senator Michael Bennet (D-Col.) have dropped out.
This represents a win for the progressive wing of the party, though moderates such as Buttigieg and Klobuchar also had extremely strong performances. Sanders has a path to the nomination, with more diverse support compared to his 2016 run, and strong support among young voters.
Reaction
I think that the Democratic primaries are now in an interesting place. Many more candidates, such as Andrew Yang, are starting to drop out, and those previously thought to be strong such as Biden and Warren are showing their weaknesses. I think that it will be interesting to see how Buttigieg and Klobuchar perform in more diverse states, with both of them struggling to get minority support. Both Iowa and New Hampshire have been close, but I think Bernie Sanders is in a very strong position right now.
Questions
- Given the lack of diversity in both Iowa and New Hampshire, how well do you think they will predict results in more diverse primaries such as South Carolina and California?
- How strong of a position do you see Sanders in currently?
- What candidates do you expect to drop out in the near future? What do you think their failures were in running their campaigns?
Based on the Democratic caucus in Iowa and the Democratic primary in New Hampshire, Sanders and Buttigieg are the clear frontrunners for the Democratic presidential nomination, and like you point out, Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats aren’t the most representative of the party as a whole, so I think both Sanders and Buttigieg are in strong positions going on to other states, but I don’t necessarily think one has a leg up on the other. As for the other candidates, I don’t see anyone besides Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, and Klobuchar staying in the race much longer given how poorly everyone else seems to be polling. I wouldn’t really attribute these other candidates’ lack of success in the polls (or at least not most of it) to poor campaign management or failures in campaigning, rather some candidates just provide more compelling platforms and policy promises that appeal to a wider range of Democrats. There is only so much that can be done to tweak what a candidate stands for based on their own personal belief system to try to rake in support before it becomes too much and disingenuous, and some people just hold more popular opinions.
ReplyDeleteI get that Iowa and New Hampshire are important, but let's not forget that in national polls, Biden is still leading, though he is sliding fast. Buttigieg simply does not have enough support outside of Iowa and New Hampshire, so when it comes down to the nomination, I think Biden and Sanders will be the contenders in the end. I think that other candidates just don't stand up to Biden and Sanders because they don't have a deep involvement with an anti-Trump symbol, which I feel the democratic party's campaign is mainly based off of, opting to lean more and more progressive over time. Biden was VP for Obama, and Sanders was the other democratic contender in 2016, so they both have strong anti-Trump connections. Maybe that platform will work, but I have my reservations. I'm really hoping we DO NOT get 4 more years of Trump, but it's gonna be close. And we still have this whole polarization problem to solve...
ReplyDeleteActually, the current polls after New Hampshire show that Biden has dropped significantly, so it is looking more and more like Bernie is going be in the lead for a while. However, it is good to understand that Biden's main focus is in minority regions, so the future is not set in stone. As for people who will drop out of the race, Yang has already dropped out, which probably didn't surprise many people. Many of the smaller candidates will likely drop out of the race, except for maybe Bloomberg.
DeleteWhile Sanders showed himself to have broad appeal with the few minority voters in New Hampshire, Buttigieg practically has no support outside of whites. This does not bode well for him going forward, but I think Sanders is here to stay as a frontrunner. However, I do see Biden sticking around, especially if he's able to win South Carolina and convince voters that he still has a fighting chance. I also think many are underestimating Bloomberg because of his unorthodox method of skipping the first few primaries, as he has significantly more money than anyone else and he isn't afraid to spend it. I don't expect anyone to drop out before Super Tuesday (besides perhaps Warren after her disappointing finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, or Steyer if he doesn't place well in South Carolina), but I don't see anyone standing up to Sanders, Bloomberg, and Biden in the long run; in other words, I don't see Buttigieg and Klobuchar's momentum being enough to defeat Bloomberg's spending wave.
ReplyDeleteI expect Biden to do much better in South Carolina and California, considering his support coming from the black community. Conversely, I see Mayor Pete doing significantly worse in the more diverse states. I believe Sanders is in a strong enough position to win the whole presidency. I don’t know who will drop out next, but I am very disappointed Yang had to drop out. 40% of Yang’s supporters (conservatives, libertarians, independents, and the politically disengaged) won’t vote for another Democrat, and in all likelihood most of them (the 40%) will probably vote for Trump again like they did in 2016 or not vote at all.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure about how well the primaries in South Carolina and California will effect the primaries as much. I expect Biden to do better in the latter primaries. However I see sanders still prevalent in the primaries as well but his chances might fall as the time goes on.
ReplyDeleteI think that the results of the primaries in both Iowa and New Hampshire provide only part of the picture when it comes to determining which candidates will be the most successful. Since the democratic party is so diverse, I definitely think that the primaries in states with a larger minority population will weed out the candidates who really have a strong base of voters. For Sanders, I think that he is in a pretty strong position as he has been leading in the primaries so far and for the other candidates that got little to no votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, I think they will drop out soon.
ReplyDeleteI think the results of the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries do not paint the full picture or predict the results of primaries in other states. Given the general demographics of both states, the voter population is more skewed towards supporting certain candidates, the likes of Bernie Sanders for example. While I think Sanders performed well during the primaries, I don’t think it can clearly dictate how he will do in other more diverse states. Given that Sanders’ home state of Vermont is geographically close to New Hampshire, it makes sense that the general population there was in support of Bernie. Given the complexity of beliefs in states such as California and South Carolina, I have a suspicion that Buttigeg and Klobuchar will do well in their primaries due to their more moderate stances. At this point as well, I am struggling to see how Biden and Warren will be able to recover from their current positions and gain more support. Both candidates started off strong, but it seems with each debate and primary that candidates like Sanders and Buttigeg are stealing their support. However it goes, this election season should be an interesting one.
ReplyDeleteBernie Sanders could've been in where Trump is now but Democrats obviously chose to pick a candidate that had no chance. The swing of 2016 was pretty substantial b/c if Sanders would have been Democrats main candidate he would have beat trump, but Clinton never had a chance in 2016
ReplyDeleteGiven that Bernie did so well in places like Iowa and New Hampshire, I would predict that he will do as well, if not even better, in progressive and diverse states such as California. I see Sanders in a very strong position at the moment, although this is definitely susceptible to change. Earlier on, I assumed that Biden would do well in these primaries and present himself as a frontrunner, but I'm glad to see contenders like Bernie and Buttigeg leading. I think that Klobuchar, despite her current success, will drop out because I simply don't see her as a strong candidate. She isn't one of my preferred candidates, but I will honestly support any democrat going against Trump.
ReplyDeleteI believe that Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of the country at large, and especially not so for states like Louisiana and Mississippi with large African American populations. While it seems Bernie will continue to do well in most states, this is where Biden is predicted to do the best, as polls have shown that he has strong support from the African-American population in the United States. Buttigieg, the runner-up in New Hampshire, has seen staggeringly low support from the African-American population, especially amidst claims he was mishandling the South Bend Police Department as mayor early on in his 2020 campaign. However, the true test will come on Super Tuesday, with eleven states participating. These states are much more representative of the country's population, and this day can often become the deciding factor for the nomination because so many states participate. Sanders seems like he will continue do well, especially considering he was so close to winning the nomination during the 2016 election. However, the delegates and superdelegates at the DNC could still become a deciding factor in the nomination, as they seemed to hold a lot of influence in the 2016 election as well.
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ReplyDeleteAlthough Sanders is technically ahead of the rest of the candidates, the democratic nomination is still open to many. The Iowa caucus proved that many candidates can surprise everyone, just like Buttigieg... But do I see Sander's in a strong position as of now? No, I don't. Sander's won New Hampshire over Buttigieg with less than 3 percent and tied in Iowa with him. Sanders is barely ahead of the rest. Now, do I think that more candidates will drop soon? Yes, and I believe many will drop in the next few weeks. Some of the candidates I believe for sure will drop out will be Klobuchar, Patrick, and Delaney. Although I wouldn't call their campaigns a fiasco, they never really took off when compared to other candidates with far more successful campaigns.
Given the more diverse demographics of South Carolina and California, I expect Biden to have a surge given his popularity among minorities. Buttigieg is projected to take a step back due to his poor numbers with minorities, so I believe that Sanders will be able to take a decisive lead. Sanders is in a strong position with a lot of momentum heading into Super Tuesday. However, Michael Bloomberg is the x-factor in all of this and he has the potential to make a big splash on Super Tuesday. As far as the near future, I expect that Warren and Klobuchar will drop out due to their campaigns stalling heading into the primaries and not gaining any lasting traction. While they may drop out, I did not see any major flaws in their campaigns other than the competitiveness of the race to be the nominee.
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