Summary
As the US and China continue to negotiate a trade deal aimed at satisfying both sides, soybeans are emerging as a bargaining chip for Beijing to use as leverage in those talks. But while Beijing has pledged to import more American soybeans, analysts are unsure if China will buy. China’s pig farming sector has recently been hit by an outbreak of African swine fever, driving hog numbers down by 13% and crippling demand for soybean-based feed, much to the detriment of the American soybean industry. According to the US Agriculture Secretary Sonny perdue, China has pledged to buy an additional 10 million metric tons of US soybeans, equating to around $30 billion. However, customs data show that soybean imports have been falling in recent months, party due to the heavy tariffs imposed on the soybeans. Despite this, China still remains firm that they will keep their pledge to buy more soybeans for 2019. 
Questions
1. Do you think China will be able to live up to their promise to buy more soybeans?2. Although there have been unintended consequences (such as the US soybean industry), have the Chinese tariffs been generally positive for the economy?
3. If you were a soybean farmer, what would you do?
I think that China will keep to their promise as long as the U.S. does not pull a tariff on a product that China needs. I believe that President Trump had put a tariffs on some metal products like steel, that China needs for construction. The tariff hurt the trade with China, and China in turn bought less soybeans making the farmers in the U.S. to suffer. I do not think that having the tariffs on China has been helpful because it loses trust with one of the biggest traders that we have, and it hurts many industries like the soybeans farmers. The tariffs makes China not want to trade with the U.S. in high quantities. As a soybean farmer, then can join unions to lobby against the tariffs on China.
ReplyDeleteI think that China will still find a way to live up to their promise of purchasing more soybeans. I think that they'll do this because they want to find a way to rebuild trust with the U.S. The current trade war is hurting the Chinese economy and having the U.S. as a greater trading partner will benefit them greatly. I think that the tariffs may be somewhat beneficial in the long run because it will show China that we're serious and that we want good trading conditions for ourselves. It also promotes more American made products which is good because it gives us more lower skilled but decent paying jobs to fill. However, it also causes our economy to take a step back from the more high-tech service- based track that it's headed on. It also hurts the economy in the short run because companies either have to raise prices, accept lower profit margins, or find new suppliers for their goods.
ReplyDeleteI think china won't live up to it's promise because it really doesn't make sense to import beans that you won't use. Even with tariffs dropped, the demand won't be there. Chinese tariffs have been bad for the economy, but I think they've been offset by the influx of spending spurred by companies paying dividends to shareholders instead of paying hihger taxes. As a soybean farmer, vote for someone who is pro trade.
ReplyDeleteI believe that China will keep their promise regarding soybean imports from the US, as this trade is crucial in maintaining a good relationship between the two nations. Both the US and Chinese economies rely heavily on and benefit from this trade partnership, and so I do not believe that China would do something this drastic and threaten the future of the relationship.
ReplyDeleteChina will most likely try to renegotiate the deal as this epidemic could be used as a valid reason or unexpected complication that would cause reconsideration of the situation. Although there are statements that the demand for soybeans has decreased in China, I believe the Chinese will be able to make good use of these soybeans. Soybeans are an integral part to many Chinese cuisines and I doubt a small swine fever will be able to affect the food industry so drastically. Due to all of this, I believe China will live up to their promise to buy more soybeans. If I was a soybean farmer, I would consider this event as a minor setback in the long run and keep farming.
ReplyDeleteI think that China will try their best to keep their promise regarding the soybean imports for the US because they will try to build a positive relationship with us. I agree with Marc that if they are unable to follow through with their promise, they will try to renegotiate the deal. Soybean is a vital part of Chinese food and I don't think that a small swine fever will affect it do drastically that their production will drop entirely. If I was a farmer, I would continue farming and try overcome the the fever.
ReplyDeleteI think that China will definitely attempt to hold up their end of the bargain and buy more soy beans from the US. However, I think that the tariffs placed on soybeans are detrimental to this bargain. The tariffs are leading many Chinese farmers and companies to stay away from the soybean market which leads to the inability for China to hold up their end of the bargain. Therefore, a solution to this is to decrease or remove the tariffs so that industries and farmers continue to buy the soy beans. Along with this, I think that soy bean farmers should continue to buy soy bean feed from the market because when their pigs grow healthy again, they will need feed to feed their pigs. Thus, soy bean farmers should wait for the tariffs to decrease and buy soy beans in bulk because demand for soy beans is likely to go down which would then decrease soy bean price. Therefore, if they buy soy beans now, they could get a bargain for their future.
ReplyDeleteI think that china will have efforts to continue buying more soybeans in order to maintain a positive growing relationship with the US. The tariffs could be impactful on the ability for China to continue the soybean trade, however I don't believe that it will cause any unintended consequences. If the tariff does pose an issue I think a bargain for a lower price could be more beneficial for the trade.
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, even if the soybean crops are facing issues, China will still be able to churn out the required amount in order to keep the trading allies and partners happy. However, with the tariffs that are imposed on the soybeans, the Chinese farmers are choosing to produce other crops that they can profit from instead.
ReplyDeleteI think China has it within their economic power to continue purchasing soybeans from the United States and will probably continue to do so. It is advantageous to China to have us as a trade partner, and giving us some benefits will help their economy continue working with one of its biggest consumers. It's unclear whether you're referring to chinese or american tariffs. In the case of american tariffs, their economic effect is unclear to me but they certainly send a message about how the United States wants to be treated in the world market, and that is helpful to us.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it is up to China to make promises for their farmers who do not need to buy the soybean. Making deals such as these are inherently up to risk and the swine flu affecting the pigs is a negative outcome of that risk and the United States should accept that risk. Nothing in the economy is set in stone and that must be taken into account with every deal.
ReplyDeleteI think that China will do their best to continue soybean imports since this could help impact how well they work with the U.S.. I think that both countries heavily profit off of each other, meaning that protecting their alliance is definitely a priority. As long as the imposed tariffs for soybeans are not too high to the point where they strain Chinese farmers and companies, I think China will continue to export them.
ReplyDeleteI think China will try its best to live up to their promise to buy more soybeans in order to rebuild the trust between it and the US, as the tarriffs has been quite detrimental to the Chinese economy. Given that the demand for soybeans has decreased due to the swine flu, it seems unrealistic for China to buy a ton of soybean that they will not use when they can allocate the wasted money to achieve much more meaningful goals. Nonetheless, like many of the comments above, I believe that China will try to renegotiate a deal if they really cannot meet the US demands. That being said, since most of this catastrophe has been caused by thhe high tarriffs Trump imposed on China, I think most soybean farmers might lean towards supporting to end the trade war that has been so detrimental to not only their lives but also the US as a whole.
ReplyDeleteI think China will try its best to live up to their promise to buy more soybeans from the US, but it's not guaranteed that China will succeed. Based on the current trends that Jason describes, with soybean imports falling lower and lower, it's not looking so promising that China will keep their pledge. This certainly does not mean that China will not try to keep their promise, which I think China will be able to once they sort out the swine fever issue in their pig farming sector. With that problem fixed, hopefully the soybean imports will begin to rise again to promised levels.
ReplyDelete