Iran-Iraq-US relationships are complicated to say the least: included are at least 3 wars, 2 major terrorist groups, and consistent UN babysitting. So it comes as absolutely no surprise to everyone that Iran has a formidable presence in Iraqi politics. However, the recent—unprecedented for a country as secretive as Iran—700-page leak of reports shows the astounding magnitude of Iran's influence in Iraq. Note: Iraq's hottest political divide is between Sunnis and Shiites, and Iran supports the latter while groups like ISIS are of the former.
The actual New York Times Article is 20 odd pages long, so buckle in for some quick highlights: 1) Iranian spies have worked big time to co-opt high ranking Iraqi officials and many of them would tell Iranian officials everything from their meetings with American diplomats; 2) The US and Iran have basically been using Iraq as a setting for super intense spy games, meetings in dark alleys and all, and Iran is undoubtedly winning; 3) Iran's intelligence agency has recruited former CIA agents in order to gain intel on US actions in Iraq; 4) Iran's Revolutionary Guard, a special division of the military devoted to preserving the Islamic political system, is completely responsible for Iranian policy in Iraq and other important-to-national-security countries like Lebanon; 5) Iran's main goal is to maintain stability in Iraq in order to keep it as an ally but it's also worked to eradicate the Islamic State
; 6) all guys in Washington now admit that the 2003 invasion of Iraq basically gave control of Iraq over to Iran
Ok, so I admit that was not so quick, but it's all pretty important. I think these documents, although they mainly chronicle events from a few years ago, are really important in that they are helping the rest of the world see inside Iran's black box of a government, at least a little. Recently this blog's been a little dry in terms of international news, but foreign affairs is a big part of the president's job, and Bush's actions regarding Iran and Iraq in particular never left the country's mind. So since this leak is mostly just confirming theories the US already had regarding Iranian influence, let's consider some questions about the whole thing:
-Does Iran have too much influence in Iraq? Should there be a limit to how much one country influences its neighbor?
-One theory right now is that Iranian support for Shiites and the Sunni-oppressing regime may be driving Sunnis to turn to other groups like the Islamic State for protection. Is this a big deal or just margin cases?
-Should the UN or US do anything? Has it handled the situation well in the past or did it do poorly and contribute to the current state?
Sound off in the comments!
"Iran supports the latter while the actual New York Times Article is 20 odd pages long," Nice. But all jokes aside, US-Iran relationships have historically just been, metaphorically speaking, a hunter poking a bear with a gun. We keep pestering them for no reason, and the moment they try to retaliate, we shoot them and blame them for everything, then continue to poke them. Just look at the recent nuclear deal! We could either have ignored it and kept sanctions, or signed it and trusted them, but instead we sign it and then immediately withdraw and slap sanctions while they actually abide by the terms, pissing off Tehran even more! Unlike North Korea, Iraq actually has a functioning economy, so sanctions matter to them. US foreign policy regarding Iran is garbage, so you can't really blame them for having so much influence on Iraq, a country we literally just decimated for no reason. Regarding Sunnis turning to the Islamic State, there's not much we can do. Sunnis and Shiites have been duking it out since the dawn of Islam, and as the world has gotten more interconnected (and OIL), everyone else has had no choice but to get involved. Unless we quite literally nuke the middle east off the face of the planet, there's not much we can do to stop the conflict.
ReplyDeleteThanks for pointing out the unfinished sentence, fixed it. And that's a valid (if a tad cynical) stance on the entirety of US-Iran relationships, although I'm hesitant to completely paint the US as the bad guy here, since Iran could probably have handled this influence thing a little better. Like yes our policy towards both Iran and Iraq are pretty garbage, but also going full 007 and also feeding corruption in Iraq might not be a great choice on Iran's part.
DeleteWhether or not Iran has too much influence in Iraq isn't really the question. The US shouldn't be imposing "restrictions" on how much power Iran has in Iraq, but the problem is complicated by the fact that the US GAVE them that power. It is easy to say that the US should remove itself from the conflict at this point (because it never really had a right to be there in the first place) but that's a cop-out. Now that we have forced our way into the politics of these two countries, we can't just withdraw now and expect everything to go back to the way it was. We need a plan to set the politics right, and then slowly get out and stay out of the Middle East.
ReplyDeleteBased on our broad influence abroad, I don't think the US is in any position to judge Iran's influence over Iraq just because they're an enemy. I think neighborly influence (soft power) is the new normal in the post-Cold War age, where your country is at a disadvantage if you don't exercise your influence. And as Philip said, the Sunni-Shiite divide has been prevalent since the beginning of Islam, so it isn't a problem that's going away anytime soon. While it is a a big deal that Sunnis feel compelled to seek out groups like ISIS to escape persecution and oppression, there is no solution without literally manipulating the government of Iran. Instead, we should focus on improving our abysmal relations with the region.
ReplyDeleteDisclaimer: I am not an isolationist and I don't believe that all countries should just keep to themselves, nor do I believe in the "America First" foreign policy. I believe all countries should have their own will, and Iran's actions are just imperialism hiding behind a curtain. It's probably a general consensus that the US has not been handling relations in the Middle East well. With President Bush's War on Terror, we quite possibly ruined a country. Now this country is under the influence of its neighbor. I do not know enough about Islam to comment about its impact on the situation, but I do know that something is wrong in both of the countries, but I think the US should stay out of it. We have caused enough damage, so the UN should handle it.
ReplyDeleteI agree completely with the idea that the US has spent enough time in the Middle East. I remember reading an article that talked about how when the US initially entered Afghanistan, the nearby villages thought they were the Russians coming back. To most people living in the area they could care less about the US, and our massive military going in to "fix" their problems is a pretentious and self-serving viewpoint.
ReplyDeleteAs other commenters have stated, I do not believe that the United States should get involved in this. By President Trump removing the Iran nuclear deal, America has proven that it has no place trying to decide matters in the Middle East. We've already caused enough problems, with as the article stating, us being partially responsible for this whole mess. The issues in the Middle East are long-standing and too complex to solve easily, so we should not be trying to exert our will on a foreign country. I do agree that Iran's involvement in Iraq may pose an issue for the Sunni-Shiite conflict, but it is hard to say that ISIS is gaining strength as a result of that.
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